Even as Giants fans celebrate the first 0-2 comeback in National League championship series history to beat the Cincinnati Reds and advance to the NLCS, a feeling of apprehension lingers as San Francisco faces the 2011 World Series champions, the St. Louis Cardinals.
The 2010 World Series champions fielded one of the most unevenly balanced rosters in baseball, boasting an incredible pitching staff and a — simply put — statistically terrible lineup full of exciting personalities.
The best hitters were first basemen Aubrey Huff, and Rookie of the Year and current MVP front-runner Buster Posey, with .290 and .305 averages respectively. The team also had a .257 average that was tied for 15th in the MLB. To compare, this year’s Buster Posey hit .336, and the team had a collective .269 average during the regular season, 5th best in the MLB.
Although the Giants lineup failed abysmally in games one and two against the Cincinnati Reds in the National League division series, the Giants’ bats lit up for games three, four and five, scoring 16 runs in those three games, compared to the measly two in the first two games. With many first-time playoffs batters in the Giants’ lineup, these initial problems can be explained by nerves, but the Giants cannot afford to have another slow start against the Cardinals.
In 2010, the Giants relied on a pitching staff that lit up in September and collaborated for a 1.78 team ERA, the lowest for any team since the introduction of divisional play in 1969. This year’s pitching staff has many more problems, with no Brian Wilson to close out the 9th (although former set-up man Sergio Romo is playing well) and little reliability from pitcher Tim Lincecum, who has had a decidedly poor season. Even though he shined as a reliever and even picked up a win against the Reds, his competency is still a giant question mark for manager Bruce Bochy. The Cardinals had a better team ERA during the regular season, with a 3.62 ERA vs. the Giants’ 3.73 ERA. However, both ERAs are still very good, and an 11-point difference matters very little in a postseason game, where pressure and inspiration of players can transform teams.
In order to shut down the Cardinals, the Giants’ pitching staff has to focus on all-time postseason OPS leader and former Giant Carlos Beltrán, who is currently batting .409 in this postseason with a .500 OBS. Another potential roadblock is 2011 World Series hero David Freese, who has well earned reputation as a clutch playoff hitter, with a .421 average in elimination games with 10 RBI in 19 at bats.
That 2010 team didn’t clinch the playoffs as easily as this year’s team, but that actually worked in their favor, as they rode the momentum and craziness of their unbelievably engaged city throughout the playoffs. That fall was marked by Bay Area rapper Ashkon’s parody of the hit song, “Don’t Stop Believing,” chants of “Fear the Beard” and the famous rally thong. The Giants were a lineup of characters, and San Francisco loved it. During the team’s victory parade in city hall, the streets were positively packed with fans for blocks. The screams of long-starved fans competed with the orange, black and white confetti that rained down as players waived to fans in their floats.
This year, fans are still enthusiastic, but the energy is at a lower level. Even though the dramatic comeback victory in Cincinnati energized the Giants’ fan base, the crazy energy that boosted in the 2010 postseason still isn’t present.
If pitchers such as Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Madison Bumgarner pitch at full potential, there’s really no stopping them. However, their successes has been very hit-and-miss this season, and so it is very hard to definitively call this series.
But with the poor performances of Giants pitchers and the experience and talent in the Cardinal’s lineup, the Cardinals are slight favorites to win this year’s NLCS. In truth, this series is anyone’s game, and it has the potential to be one for the ages.